The New Hampshire Advantage Continues to Widen On virtually every economic and demographic measure, New Hampshire is on top and pulling farther ahead. Indicator No. 1 is the unemployment rate. New Hampshire’s was just 5.7 percent in August, which was lowest in New England and far below the 9.6 percent national rate (Chart 1 below). The number of people working at private sector jobs in New Hampshire in August was 2.4 percent above a year ago. The comparable annual increase for the other five New England states was one-third of that rate, just 0.8 percent. Indicator No. 1 is the Philadelphia Federal Reserve monthly state index of economic activity. Here again, New Hampshire is tops in the region by far with an index of 192.5, which is 40 points above the region’s index and fourth highest in the nation (Chart 2). Indicator No. 3 comes from the 2009 American Community Survey, which the Census Bureau conducts every year. That survey found about 600,000 dwelling units, of which about 506,000 were year-round occupied units, and 60,000 were “seasonal, occasional or recreational use” dwellings – in other words, second homes.
Of the 506,000 occupied units, 367,000 were owner-occupied and just 139,000 were rented. That means 73 percent, or nearly three in every four occupied dwellings in our state, were owner-occupied. The comparable percentage was 67 percent for the other five New England states and 66 percent for the nation. This means that residents of New Hampshire are more likely to be homeowners than elsewhere, and they may be interested in owning a vacation home as well. Despite our state’s substantial advantage, there is still a recession out there that is too slowly coming to an end. It may take another season before the negative recession psychology leaves us and is replaced with optimism about the future. Chart 3 shows how home sales and home prices have stopped declining during the first three quarters of this compared to the past two years. When we show this chart next year, I expect we’ll see it heading up, powered by our state’s economic and demographic advantages mentioned above. Table 1 (immediately below) shows that residential sales in September were down significantly in most New Hampshire counties and declined 6 percent statewide. But on a year-to-date basis, sales increased in all but two counties and rose 3 percent statewide. Home prices statewide seem to be stabilizing, averaging one percent above last year for both the month of September and the first nine months of the year. That modest increase comes after two years when home prices over the first nine months declined 9 percent in 2008 and 11 percent in 2009. Perhaps our economy really is beginning to heal. Table 1: NH residential unit sales and median prices September/Year-To-Date 2010
(Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network) County | September unit sales % change | September median price % change | YTD unit sales % change | YTD unit sales % change | Belknap | +44% | +6% | +15% | +6% | Carroll | -6% | +3% | +4% | +6% | Cheshire | -24% | -6% | -3% | -4% | Coos | -29% | +1% | -7% | +21% | Grafton | +23% | -9% | +12% | +1% | Hillsborough | -11% | -2% | -4% | +2% | Merrimack | -22% | +11% | +3% | -2% | Rockingham | -12% | +10% | +7% | +3% | Strafford | +2% | +7% | +8% | +4% | Sullivan | +26% | +5% | +1% | 0% | Statewide | -6% | +1% | +3% | +1% |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
Source: NNEREN (data shown below)
| Residential home sales | Median sales price | 2007 | 9,473 | $263,000 | 2008 | 7,835 | $240,000 | 2009 | 7,759 | $214,000 | 2010 | 8,016 | $217,000 | |