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Bad Economic News Makes Selling Anything Harder -by Peter Francese The economic outlook could hardly get much worse.  Yet every one of us working stiffs still has to get out of bed every morning and try to conduct some business.  There’s little doubt that the remainder of this year and next year will be a difficult one for many businesses, including real estate.
						New Hampshire’s annual median family income in 2007 was nearly $75,000 – fifth highest in the nation.
	So here are three ideas that may brighten up your mood, and perhaps even your office wall:      1.  The national economy may be ailing, but New Hampshire is much healthier.      2.  New Hampshire is an affluent state with multiple demands for housing.      3. Granite State home prices are returning to historic relationship with income.
	Here are the details: Item One:   The number of non-farm jobs in the United States declined 0.2 percent from August 2007 to August 2008, but increased 0.8 percent in New Hampshire – by far the highest growth rate in New England (see Chart I).  The Granite State unemployment rate in August was only 4.2 percent, compared to 6.2 percent for the nation and 5.7 percent for New England. Also, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s index of economic activity for New Hampshire was 198.6, which was third highest in the nation, a full 25 percent higher than the national index of 159.3, and way above the average index 159.7 for the other states in this region.  Finally, according to RealtyTrac, less than 1 percent of New Hampshire homes are in foreclosure.  Clearly our state is better positioned than nearly all other states to weather this economic downturn. Item Two:  New Hampshire’s annual median family income in 2007 was nearly $75,000 – fifth highest in the nation.  One reason for such high income is that nearly 40 percent of our state’s workforce has a college degree.  Higher income and higher educational attainment increases one’s ability to get financing and buy a home. But it’s not only workers who buy homes in the Granite State.  Retirees are attracted  to our state in large numbers, and many of them are buying homes.  Finally, there is significant buyer activity from those who want a second or vacation home.  We are third in the nation in the percent of homes in that latter category. Item Three:  The year-to-date median home price in New Hampshire through September was $240,000.  I estimate that in 2008, the median household income (which includes both families and single individuals) was about $64,000.  That means the home price to income ratio is now 3.75, which is where it was before home prices started to rise in the 2001-02 period.  That ratio is even lower in some New Hampshire counties. Bottom line:  A New Hampshire home is a fine long-term investment.    The two tables below show both residential and condominium sales for last month and year-to-date through September.  Condominiums sales have fallen far faster than residential sales (which actually edged up 3 percent in September), and condos are taking an average of a month longer to sell. Part of the reason may be that the median condo price is now 77 percent of the median residential unit price.  That’s probably a record small spread between house and condo prices.  It means that for an average of only 23 percent more, a buyer can get a home on a lot and not have condo fees or age restrictions. That may explain why New Hampshire condominium sales year-to-date are down 36 percent versus a 17 percent drop for residential units.  Year-over-year residential unit median sale prices are down 8 percent statewide, while condo median sale prices are off just 4 percent, which suggests that condo prices may drop further than residential in the near term. NH residential (non-condominium) sales County Sept sales % change 2007-08 Median home $ Sept '08 % change Sept 2007-08 YTD sales % change 2007-08 Belknap 63 -23% $279,000 24% 448 -21% Carroll 59 -25% $198,000 -19% 475 -18% Cheshire 74 21% $192,500 -3% 507 -9% Coos 33 3% $115,000 -12% 221 -14% Grafton 67 6% $215,000 2% 518 -22% Hillsborough 259 13% $244,000 -11% 2,134 -15% Merrimack 107 -9% $220,000 -7% 805 -24% Rockingham 222 17% $270,000 -11% 1,779 -13% Strafford 97 20% $205,000 -9% 682 -22% Sullivan 25 -46% $200,000 4% 266 -27% Statewide 1,006 3% $232,500 -8% 7,835 -17%   NH condominium sales County Sept sales % change 2007-08 Median home $ Sept '08 % change Sept 2007-08 YTD sales % change 2007-08 Belknap 25 39% $145,000 -4% 117 -37% Carroll 10 -33% $176,500 -3% 97 -13% Cheshire 5 -17% $193,000 29% 32 -42% Coos 0 -100% $0 -100% 2 -67% Grafton 24 -23% $225,000 7% 192 -27% Hillsborough 89 -18% $175,000 -2% 721 -44% Merrimack 20 -29% $206,530 -7% 183 -42% Rockingham 69 -36% $202,000 -4% 655 -29% Strafford 14 -13% $149,225 4% 138 -41% Sullivan 4 -20% $340,000 21% 24 -4% Statewide 260 -23% $178,950 -4% 2,161 -36%   Source:  Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN).  Statistics are based on information from NNEREN for the respective periods shown for the respective regions in the State of New Hampshire or all towns in the State of New Hampshire. All analysis and commentary related to the statistics is that of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® and not that of NNEREN.

	©Copyright 2007 New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Peter Francese is the Demographic Advisor to the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®.